I welcome this important discussion on the topic of Irish unity and its fiscal implications. It deserves analysis and fundamentally respect for the people, who will ultimately decide the future of this island. There are real challenges in any transition to unity but there are also very significant opportunities. The future of this island should not be reduced to a balance sheet. Fiscal implications are important and must be planned for. However, any future Border poll should focus primarily on the people of this island and the opportunity to build a shared home that works for everybody. It is essential that we begin to plan and prepare now for transition. A great deal of excellent work has already been done. I want to mention some of the academic research that has been done. The ESRI has already been mentioned. In particular, I want to mention the work done by Fintan O'Toole and Sam McBride in their book, For and Against A United Ireland. It is a very accessible format which sets out some of the complexities and the opportunities of unification. There is also very valuable work being done by the Analysing and Researching Ireland North and South, ARINS, project, led by the Royal Irish Academy and the University of Notre Dame. I also acknowledge the work done by Professor John Doyle and his colleagues in DCU and Ulster University who have provided detailed economic modelling that has made the fiscal implications tangible. For years, we have heard that Northern Ireland receives a subvention of between £10 billion and £14 billion. Any suggestion that this bill would just be transferred to a united Ireland is reductive and fails to account for the economic opportunities of unification. Professor John Doyle's research provides a much clearer picture of the potential initial costs. It shows that when we strip out the UK-specific costs, such as national debt interest, defence spending, including on nuclear weapons, and the cost of a global diplomatic service and when we properly count Northern Ireland's tax take, the real figure that would transfer to a united Ireland is about £1.5 billion or roughly €1.75 billion. That is a very different starting point. Professor Doyle and his colleagues' model then adds the costs of levelling up public services. It includes €1 billion per year in extra spending for at least a decade to improve health, education, welfare and infrastructure. It includes a gradual equalisation of public sector wages, starting at €152 million per year. It includes a phased transfer of pension liabilities, rising by about €115 million per year over 40 years. When we put all of that together, the year 1 cost of unity is about €3 billion. It is certainly not an insignificant figure, but it is less than the 1% combined modified GNI of a united Ireland. More importantly, the same modelling shows that a united Ireland could break even within a number years. By year ten, depending on growth, the model suggests that unification will generate between €2.9 billion and €6.7 billion in annual surplus. Unification presents distinct challenges that need to be carefully planned for and managed. The analysis done by Professor Doyle shows that the cost of pensions would be unlikely to transfer to a united Ireland straight away. Following Brexit, the UK and Ireland signed a bilateral convention on social security in 2019. This confirmed that pension costs would be shared based on the ratio of years worked in each jurisdiction. Ireland should only take over the liabilities accrued after unity. While there should be no cliff edge, this transition must be thoroughly planned to protect pensioners. The North has also experienced decades of underinvestment. Levelling up will require sustained funding but it will also unlock future potential and prosperity. The UK allocates almost £1.6 billion in defence spending to Northern Ireland. Ireland spends less than that defending a much larger territory and has decades of underinvestment to catch up on. We need increased investment, particularly in systems and technologies, including sonar and air surveillance radar. Unification may also bring additional security challenges that will need to be planned for and funded appropriately. Even with these increases, we will not replicate the British model of defence spending. These challenges should not blind us from the opportunities. Northern Ireland has underperformed economically for a century. It is the poorest region in the UK. Unification and the reintegration into the European Union present the people of the North with incredible economic opportunities. Tá sé fíor go bhfuil deis iontach againn. Tá dúshláin agus tá rioscaí ann, ach tá go leor le gnóthú. Níor cheart deifir a chur ar an aontú. Níor cheart moill a chur air ach an oiread. Sin é an fáth gur gá dúinn an comhrá a thosú anois. Sin é an fáth gur gá dúinn áireamh a dhéanamh ar dhaoine agus éisteacht le tuairimí difriúla. Unification should never come down to simply a question of who pays. We should be asking what kind of future we want to build. We can build a future where prosperity is shared and communities and different traditions are respected. We need to begin planning for that future now.

Sentiment score: 0.18