At the outset, I pass my sympathies, and those of everyone, to the Minister of State, Deputy Robert Troy, whose father, Paddy, has passed away. Robert is, obviously, a Minister of State in the Department of Finance and we think of him and his family at this time of loss. I thank Deputy Doherty for his question. The programme for Government, Securing Ireland’s Future, sets out a range of commitments to build upon the reforms delivered to date in the insurance sector. On 24 July, the Government launched its Action Plan for Insurance Reform, which includes a comprehensive set of targeted actions aimed at improving affordability, availability and transparency across the insurance sector. I thank the Minister of State, Deputy Troy, for his work on this. It will build on its predecessor which was the catalyst for many changes, including the implementation of the personal injuries guidelines to replace the book of quantum, the commencement of legislation to enhance and reform the role of the Injuries Resolution Board in order to reduce the number of claims proceeding to costlier and time-consuming litigation, and the establishment of the Office to Promote Competition in the Insurance Market within the Department of Finance. As part of the development of the new plan, the Department of Finance undertook a wide-ranging public consultation that received over 70 detailed submissions. There are ten priority actions, focused on the areas of greatest impact. I will come back to some of that information in a moment. With regard to the operating profits for motor insurance companies before interest and tax deduction, the position shows that operating profit displays annual variability and has fallen from 13% in 2020 to 5% in 2024. To break this data out, operating profit was 13% for 2020; 16% for 2021; 13% for 2022; 9% for 2023; and 5% for 2024. I can provide those figures in writing. The data published in the latest national claims information database, NCID, private motor report 7 shows, on page 29, that operating profits for motor insurance companies, taking account of tax, interest costs and other expenses deducted, have also displayed variability over the years. The relevant figure was 12% for 2020; 14% for 2021; 12% for 2022; 8% for 2023; and 4% for 2024. I will have to come back in on the operating profits for the liability insurance market in my next response.
Sentiment score: 0.29
I will speak to the Central Bank as part of my regular engagement, raising the points the Deputy has raised. I am very happy to do that. The establishment of the National Claims Information Database, NCID, has greatly improved oversight of claims' costs and trends in the insurance market. Indeed, it is one of the most comprehensive and respected insurance data sources internationally. The Central Bank of Ireland, which was tasked with developing and operating the NCID, has advised my Department that operating profit comprises total income with tax, interest costs, and any other expenses deducted. This is fully consistent with previous NCID reports and ensures alignment with other reporting requirements for insurance undertakings issued by the Central Bank. However, my officials have contacted the Central Bank of Ireland and sought the additional information so as to assist with the Deputy's question, some of which I will put on the record. I can provide the Deputy with the operating profits for the liability insurance market. The broader point is that regardless of whether you look at the data supplied-----
Sentiment score: 0.36
I can provide them. I am very happy to do that now if the Cathaoirleach Gníomhach will bear with me for one second. In terms of the operating profits for the liability insurance market before interest and tax is deducted, it should be noted that in 2020 a loss of 15% was recorded, a profit of 11% in 2021, a profit of 15% in 2022, a profit of 16% in 2023 and an operating profit before interest and tax of 12% for 2024, the latest year for which the information is available. The data that is published in the most recent NCID, EL, PL and Commercial Property Report 5, published last week, shows on page 30 the operating profits for the liability insurance market with those taxes and expenses deducted. I will set is out in a letter, which might be easier.
Sentiment score: 0.45
I am conscious that I put a lot of information very quickly on the record of the Dáil in the interests of the finance spokespeople here and Deputy Doherty. I will perhaps put it in a letter to the finance committee. I did not get a chance to go through all of the data in the brief time available in these back and forth exchanges. I would just make a couple of points to the Deputy. First, I will engage with the Central Bank, as he has done, in relation to the points he has made. Second, what is of particular interest is that there is some variation over the years, even as opposed to which definition one uses. This is important when we look at the sector over a longer period. Of interest is that if we look at the sector from 2010 to 2024, which is a longer period of time, there is an average operating profit of 5% across all firms for private motor insurance and a 2.1% profit for the liability insurance market. That is across a much longer period, 2010 out to 2024. I am also advised that insurers have released capital reserves, positively impacting profitability in recent years. Profitability trends may not be reflected in future years as a result of reserve releases. That is worth monitoring. It is also important to note that wider cyclical and long-term trends provide a more accurate reflection of market profitability. I also point out we are trying to attract more players into this market for obvious reasons.
Sentiment score: 0.27
Yes, it has been approved and it will be published tomorrow. I am very happy, of course, to provide any advices or technical briefings that are required by Opposition spokespeople early in the new year, whenever required and in the appropriate forum. The medium-term fiscal structural plan will be published tomorrow. In line with all relevant European regulations and procedures, the plan will be submitted to the European Commission shortly thereafter. Although each member state has discretion over the content of its medium-term fiscal structural plan, MTP, information is required on three core elements: the fiscal strategy; investment plans; and structural reforms. Of these, the fiscal strategy is clearly the key component. As Deputy Nash is aware, the medium-term plan is a highly consequential document. It required considerable thought and analysis. The plan will reflect current macro-economic conditions as well as Government decisions and priorities. The merit of medium-term fiscal planning is clear for a number of reasons, and I do not need to convince anyone of that. It provides clarity, it prevents in-year drift, and medium-term plans can help mitigate the vulnerability of Ireland's tax revenue base. Likewise, medium-term planning can also assist in preparing the public finances for fiscal challenges facing the Irish economy, such as the impact of population ageing, as we see in the Future Forty report we published last month, and crucially a credible medium-term strategy provides certainty on the domestic budgetary policy stance that can help boost private sector spending on capital investment. This plan will set out the Government's economic and budgetary strategy for the remainder of this decade, with a clear objective to support further sustainable gains in living standards for all in the years ahead.
Sentiment score: 0.36
I take the point. It would have been optimum to have an opportunity to debate it before the recess. We did make an intentional decision not to publish this earlier in the year. I was not the Minister of Finance but I was involved in the decision as a party leader. The rationale behind it, which I think was correct, was to wait and see what the international environment looked like from a tariff point of view. There was different debate and different commentary on this and we decided to publish a summer economic statement that had a one-year horizon. This was different from previous years. We decided to publish the budget. When there was a degree of trade certainty - insofar as there ever is in this world - or certainly more than there was earlier in the year, it gave us more confidence to publish a fiscal strategy that is a binding document. There will be plenty of time for the Oireachtas to interrogate it. I am very happy for Opposition spokespeople on finance to be provided with any briefings they require. It did need to go to the Cabinet this week. It went to Cabinet and it will be published this week too.
Sentiment score: 0.21
I did.
Sentiment score: 0.00
Without being smart, it depends on how you define multi-annual budgeting. What this will enable us to do is set out a horizon for spending levels out to the end of the decade. That provides greater certainty for the Department of public expenditure and others to engage multi-annual funding, which interestingly is something IFAC is very supportive of. It made a very positive difference when we introduced it in health for a two-year period. I met representatives from IFAC. I do not wish to speak for the council, but its main requirement is that the Government should set out a medium-term plan and stick to it. I think I am correctly paraphrasing what was said. Governments can decide what the level of spending should be, but IFAC's concern - and, certainly, what I took from it - is that it is important that when the Government publishes a medium-term plan, it sticks to it. There is a requirement for a net expenditure growth path. Net primary spending is a technical definition of public expenditure defined as general government spending adjusted for interest expenditure, discretionary revenue measures, expenditure on programmes matched or co-financed by the European Union, cyclical elements of unemployment benefit and one-off temporary expenditure items outside the control of government. There will be a commitment to that in the plan tomorrow.
Sentiment score: 0.26
I engaged with my Department as recently as yesterday on this because we had previous engagements in certain forums in respect of it. The Department's clear view is that an uptick in inflation was anticipated in its forecasts. In that context, it points to the issue of base effects. It has provided a graph that I can send to the Deputy. These effects need to be factored in. While the headline figure for November was slightly higher than anticipated, we stress that monthly figures are volatile and the Department's assessment of inflation for next year has not materially changed. At the time of the budget, my Department forecast an annual HICP inflation rate of 1.9% for 2026. We debated the ESRI report only an hour ago. The ESRI’s forecasts were published just morning. It has revised down its forecast for CPI for next year. It is important to stress that wages are growing faster than prices and that the average worker is seeing their wages outstrip price rises for the first time in a while. As the Deputy well knows, the Department undertakes two macroeconomic forecasting rounds each year in spring and autumn. Both of these are aligned with the European Union’s budgetary cycle. The autumn forecasts published in September alongside the budget were endorsed by IFAC. The inflation rate for this year was projected to average 1.8% in the autumn forecasting round. In the year to date, namely January to November, inflation has averaged 2%. This forecast was calibrated on the assumption of an acceleration in the inflation rate in the second half of the year due, in part, to base effects. In other words, annual price changes are being influenced by the very low reading recorded a year ago. In publishing its data, the Central Statistics Office outlined the role of the base effects in pushing up the annual rate of inflation since September. Taking these base effects into account, it is important to note that the price level in November was lower than in August. As a result, annual inflation is likely to moderate somewhat over the coming months. For next year, my Department is projecting an average inflation rate of 1.9% and the range of other forecasts extend from 1.4% in the case of the Central bank to 1.9% in the case of the European Commission.
Sentiment score: 0.04
I accept that cost-of-living pressures are real for people. This House regularly debates what the different policy proposals to address that should be. In my Department's projections, which are obviously provided independent of the political system, inflation was estimated to average 1.8% in the autumn forecasting round. Between January and November, it has averaged 2%. On the forecasting provided by my Department in respect of budget 2026, which was delivered in October, the forecast is actually at the outer end of the forecasts of a number of other agencies and organisations. The Central Bank was predicting 1.4%. The European Commission was projecting 1.9%. I read the ESRI report, but I also listened carefully to the ESRI's commentary on the radio this morning. Wages are outpacing prices, although I accept that this is happening from a very challenging position in light of the level of inflation we have experienced and the level of real impact people have experienced with the cost of goods and services over a sustained period. That is why we can debate the budget package, as we often do.
Sentiment score: 0.13
The Deputy needs to return to the technical but not unimportant point that it is still the view not just of the Department of Finance but also the CSO that what we are seeing in the inflation rate since September has been the impact of base effects in pushing up the annual rate of inflation. As recently as my engagement yesterday with the Department, as distinct from my political views, the forecasting for the year remains largely in line with what it expects to see at the end of the year and the forecasting for next year remains as it was on budget day. Deputy Doherty will have heard the person who wrote today's ESRI report say of the 1.6% in relation to disposable income that there were protections for lower-income workers. The report specifically talks about the 1.6% relating to medium- and higher-income workers. It also notes that this was without the benefit of wage growth, which is now, on average, outstripping price inflation. In other words, wage growth is now rising faster than prices. The ESRI made the point that this was not factored into the 1.6%.
Sentiment score: 0.17
The European Central Bank, as we know, is responsible for monetary policy in the euro area. Having declined in stages over the past 18 months, its main lending rate is now 2.15%. While changes in the level of official interest rates will feed through to the wider economy it does not have a uniform impact on the level of retail interest rates. In a market economy, the determination of retail and business lending rates is a commercial matter for individual creditors. The most recent Central Bank data shows the weighted average interest rate on new mortgages was 3.56% in October. While this is above the euro area average of 3.33%, the percentage is almost 0.5% lower than the same time last year. It is factually correct that we are above the euro but we are not the highest in the EU. In the most recent budget, the Government maintained the mortgage interest tax credit at the current level for a further year and at a reduced level of relief for the following year. This will assist borrowers who have seen large interest rate increases to offset the impact of the rising cost of living. It introduced mortgage interest relief for homeowners with an outstanding mortgage balance on their primary dwelling house of between €80,000 and €500,000 as of 31 December 2022. This relief was extended in budget 2025 and again in the most recent budget for 2026. The Central Bank, through its regulatory framework, offers protection for consumers and requires that all regulated entities, including banks, retail credit firms and credit servicing firms, are transparent and fair in all their dealings with borrowers. The revised and strengthened consumer protection code will come into effect next March and will set out requirements for enhanced disclosure on mortgage switching options and the impact of incentives on the overall cost of credit of a mortgage. The banking industry has adopted an aligned industry-wide set of initial eligibility criteria to facilitate the switching of mortgages from non-banks to banks and has introduced a website, bpfi.ie/in-your-interest, to assist the mortgage switching process. Domestic banks currently maintain healthy balance sheets, which are also important to ensure they are well positioned in case of adverse shocks. While the profitability of the domestic banking sector is high, it is noted that it has moderated from recent highs.
Sentiment score: 0.41
The more competition in the banking sector and the ability to have competition across the EU is how we can help in a sustained and policy proactive way. A number of discussions that are taking place at a European level about completing the single market in relation to that is good. Making sure this is an attractive location in which to operate banks and financial services is also important and important to consumers, including the people the Deputies mentioned. It is important, though, when we have this conversation to recognise that we are having it at a time when the weighted average interest rate on new mortgages is falling. It is 0.5 % lower than it was at the same time last year. The Deputies are right that these are real figures and have real impacts on people. The latest data from the Central Bank, which publishes quarterly data on interest rates on outstanding mortgages, is from September of this year and indicates that the average interest rate on outstanding mortgages held by banks was 3.44%, down from 3.6% a year earlier. For the overall non-bank sector the weighted average was 3.78%, down from 4.39% a year earlier and for those entities in the non-bank sector, which do not engage in new lending, the weighted average was 3.91%, down almost 1.5% from 5.32% a year earlier. The Central Bank has indicated that Irish banks operate at a healthy profit level, but that gap with the EU average has narrowed more recently. Domestic banks currently maintain healthy balance sheets. We need them to do so in order that they are well positioned to absorb potential credit losses in case of adverse shocks. We know what it was like when the banking sector collapsed in the past and the pain that caused. As announced in the recent budget, the revised form of a bank levy was further extended. Extending the bank levy in increments of one year at a time ensures the form, scope and revenue target of the levy can be assessed and calibrated on an annual basis in a manner that accounts for various factors, including the level of profitability of the sector from year to year and the performance of the liable institutions relative to one another and that is also a tool at our disposal.
Sentiment score: 0.22
It is not. They reduced.
Sentiment score: 0.00
If the Deputies want to have a direct link between every loan facility and the ECB interest rate, they have to be willing to say they want it for deposits as well. That will not be good either for many Irish businesses or families. There has to be a context to this conversation because people are watching at home and it is presented to them as though interest rates are way out of kilter with the European average. The point I am making with the evidence I put on the record of the House, which is available for all to read from the ECB and the Central Bank of Ireland, is that the gap is now narrowing. I have heard it said for years that Irish mortgage holders pay the highest mortgage interest rates in the European Union. That is not true. We pay a little above the European average. That has real impacts on people in their bills, that is absolutely right. However, it was 3.56% in October and the European average was 3.3%. It is, therefore, absolutely prudent and sensible to say we should continue to look at what we can do at a European level. I was at meetings as recently as last week about what we can do at a European level to complete the single market and make sure there are more opportunities for Ireland, which is a small country from the point of view of population, to be able to avail of banking services across the European Union and to attract banks in. It is not just talk. We saw yesterday the benefit of a new banking organisation entering the Irish economy. We have kept the banking levy, which is a tool at our disposal and it is reviewed each year in advance of the budget.
Sentiment score: 0.14
As the Deputy noted, NAMA is on track to substantively conclude its operational wind-down by the end of this year. NAMA completed its final surplus payment of €450 million to the Exchequer as recently as yesterday, 17 December 2025. In total, NAMA has now contributed €5.6 billion to the State. This contribution has included cash transfers, corporation tax payments as well as significant assets transferred to the Land Development Agency, LDA, earlier this year, comprising social housing and strategic lands with the potential to deliver up to 4,500 homes. The conclusion of IBRC special liquidation and dissolution of NAMA Bill, when enacted, will finalise the phased and orderly wind-down of the agency. Priority drafting of the Bill was approved on 2 July 2024 and is currently at an advanced stage. The experience of other workout vehicles internationally has shown that some residual activity, including litigation, would remain after NAMA's core work had concluded. The need to ensure that such residual activity is properly managed has been a priority of the Government and officials throughout the drafting of the Bill. Therefore the Bill will provide for a new unit to be established within the NTMA following NAMA's dissolution, to manage any remaining residual activity, including litigation, until ultimate completion. This resolution unit will report to NTMA senior management and will operate within the agency's governance framework. The vesting of this residual activity in the NTMA will ensure that any active proceedings to which NAMA was a party before its dissolution will continue to be managed effectively. As the Deputy will be aware, by virtue of sections 99 and 202 of the NAMA Act 2009, NAMA is legally precluded from disclosing confidential debtor information, including specific details relating to debtors, secured assets or related transactions. I remind the Deputy that NAMA was established as an independent commercial body and I have no role in its operations or decisions. In relation to the matters raised by the Deputy, I am informed by NAMA that it is satisfied it has at all times acted appropriately and in accordance with its statutory remit.
Sentiment score: 0.24
I thank Deputy McGrath for his follow-up question. It is not a question of responsibility. I am precluded, as is NAMA, under sections 99 and 202 of the NAMA Act from disclosing confidential debtor information. Indeed, NAMA is legally precluded from disclosing that information, including specific details relating to debtors, secured assets or related transactions. The agency remains an independent commercial body. These queries the Deputy raised have been raised with NAMA and it has informed me it is satisfied it has at all times acted appropriately and in accordance with its statutory remit. If the Deputy has any further information to the contrary or concerns, I encourage him to make them available to NAMA or any other agency he feels is appropriate. Deputy Neville asked an interesting question about learnings. One hopes we will never find ourselves as a country in this position ever again and that is why we have to continue to budget in such a manner. NAMA's lifetime contribution to the Exchequer has been €5.6 billion and that includes cash, corporation tax and significant assets.
Sentiment score: 0.31
I will come back on the rest in a moment.
Sentiment score: 0.00
I never said "responsibility".
Sentiment score: 0.00
I say this respectfully and I do not want to be overly argumentative on the final day of the Dáil before Christmas, but it is unfair to say the Garda is not interested. The Garda in this country take very seriously any issues brought to its attention and if the Deputy has an issue with the Garda, there is a structure there. I just do not like those blanket statements, "The Garda is not interested" and "NAMA is not interested". It is a very serious thing to come to the floor of the Dáil, reference individual citizens of our State's tax details and numbers - I am not sure that is in order - and then basically accuse people of fraud, including State agencies. Everyone has an entitlement to his or her good name. There are very robust procedures in place. If the Deputy believes any illegality has been committed, he should go to An Garda Síochána. The Garda is always interested in all matters related to that. I am satisfied, as Minister for Finance, that based on the information the Deputy has provided to the Department of Finance and to NAMA, that NAMA has acted at all times appropriately and in accordance with its statutory remit. That is what I am telling the Deputy here on the floor of the Dáil. I have also said, and reiterate, that in regard to any residual activity, including court cases - the Deputy referenced cases and I do not know whether they are live or not - responsibility for that will transfer to the NTMA. Perhaps that is another route through which the Deputy can raise his query.
Sentiment score: -0.03
We are not.
Sentiment score: 0.00